Posts Tagged ‘Bet’

A Bad Bet

Tim is the VP of IT. His company’s data center is more than a thousand miles from the nearest ocean, so it’s not going to be impacted by a tsunami or a hurricane. It’s in an area that has very little seismic activity, so it’s not likely to be affected by an earthquake.  There are no active volcanoes nearby. It’s not near any rivers or near a flood plain. There are no other major buildings nearby, and, even though his area has experienced a major drought over the past year, the risk from fire, at least from somewhere outside the data center, is very low.

Tim’s disaster recovery plan calls for a full backup of the application and data files of the critical applications once a week and an incremental backup nightly. The backups usually complete without error, but not always. Some applications are considered more critical than others, so some applications are backed up less frequently. Tim does a disaster recovery test twice a year, to make sure that everything in the DR plan is working. Usually it is. There are other risks to his data center. He could lose power or network communication. He could have a fire that starts inside the data center. His area does occasionally have tornadoes, but not very often. There could be a chemical spill that would require the area to be evacuated, but none of these are very likely.

Like every IT director, Tim has a limited budget, and he is constantly under pressure to keep IT costs low. Tim has made a series of guesses, bets really, in developing his disaster recovery plan. He’s bet that he’s covered for most of the risk associated with natural disasters, he’s bet that the applications that he deemed critical are the right priorities, that he’s got all of the program files and data together in the proper groups, and that nothing has changed since he last revisited the plan. He’s betting that the backup process is working, that the tapes are readable and the applications recoverable.

Those are only some of the bets that Tim has made. Each bet has a consequence. Sometimes he’ll win. Sometimes he’ll lose. But what happens, if Tim guesses wrong?

I’m a fan of the movie, “The Princess Bride.”  If you haven’t seen the movie, click on the link below to see a short clip of what can happen when you guess wrong.

The Princess Bride: The Man in Black in a battle of wits with Vizzini.

Actually, like the movie, the story I just told you is fantasy. Tim is real, but I made up the rest. In reality, Tim made a very different bet. He bet on Axxana. With one very good bet, he avoided making hundreds of bad ones.